What a capacity index would measure, and why Ottawa should publish one

Each fall, the federal government tables an Immigration Levels Plan with targets for the next three years. Until 2024, those plans covered only permanent residents. Temporary residents, the students and workers who drove most of the growth from 2022 to 2024, were effectively uncapped.

We think the plan should come with a public scorecard: the handful of numbers that tell Canadians whether the country can absorb the growth being proposed. If the numbers are strong, welcome more people. If they are strained, slow down and build.

Four systems, four measures

The targets above are ours, not official. That’s the point: there are no official targets today. Any government that published a scorecard like this would force a better debate, because everyone could see the same numbers.

How it would work

Start with housing, the binding constraint. Multiply expected housing starts by average household size and you get the number of new residents the country can house without making the shortage worse:

259,028 starts × 2.4 people per home ≈ 620,000 new residents a year.

That figure includes natural increase (births minus deaths), so the room left for net immigration is smaller. Then check the other systems. If primary-care access, wait times, school space or congestion are getting worse, the plan should explain why growth at the proposed level is still the right call, or it should come down.

The ceiling rises when we build more. That is the most important feature. A capacity index doesn’t lock in a small Canada. It gives every level of government a reason to build a bigger one.

What it is not

It is not a judgement about who belongs here. Newcomers are not the cause of Canada’s slow permitting, doctor licensing bottlenecks or decade-long transit projects. They are among the people hurt most by them. A capacity index protects the promise we make to every new Canadian: come here, and there will be a home, a doctor and a classroom waiting.